The Day Ahead
Posted: 2017-03-14 11:26:13-
UK parliament passes Brexit bill as Scotland demands referendum – USD/GBP off nearly 100 pips to 1.2125.
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European stock markets down fractionally so far with US equity futures pointing to a weaker open.
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Asia ex-Japan advance; Nikkei closes down 0.1 percent
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Markets expect Fed rate hike, look ahead to G20 meeting
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China investment, output beat forecasts, retail sales miss
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Oil retreats as rising U.S. supply dampens sentiment
Economic Event Calendar
Sentiment Outlook
Traders will be eyeing US PPI data for clues on the trajectory of inflation in the back half of the year as we await the fed rate decision tomorrow. With fed fund futures predicting a near 100% chance of a hike, participants likely to look beyond the meeting to other factors. Most notably in Europe where participants will be eyeing a parliamentary election in the Netherlands on Wednesday, as well as the evolving Brexit situation after Theresa May secured approval to invoke article 50.
It is also worth noting that a massive snow storm has arrive in the Northeastern US. Travel delays and office closures could limit participation today.
USD/GBP off nearly 100 pips to 1.2125. 1.2142, this has now held 4 times on a closing basis. We would allow for a deeper rebound towards the 55 and 200 day ma at 1.2374/1.2407 ahead of further losses to 1.1988/80 recent low and the bottom of the 5 month range at 1.1922. But a close today below 1.2142 changes a lot. The market will stay directly offered below 1.2374/1.2406, the 55 and 20 day moving averages.